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Expected LNG Deliveries this Week

Japan tops list with 1.58mmt

Pacific Basin

We are currently expecting 4.87mmt to be delivered within the Pacific Basin by the end of this week, constituting a decrease of 10% over our expectation at this point last week. At least 72% are destined for Japan (1.58mmt), China (1.16mmt) and South Korea (0.72mmt) whilst 0.23mmt are still without a confirmed destination within the Basin.

Current market visibility suggests the largest share of LNG scheduled to arrive in Japan within this week is coming from Australia (0.65mmt, 41%), inter alia under contracts with Gorgon LNG (0.20mmt) and NWS LNG (0.16mmt). Among LNGCs currently under way, the Asia Endeavourand the Energy Frontier are scheduled to dock at Yokkaichi by Sunday. Japan’s current import schedule thus suggests offtakes are likely to increase by 0.09mmt (6%) week-on-week but decrease by 0.25mmt (-13%) compared to the week year-on-year. 

The largest single source of LNG destined to arrive in China within this week is Australia’s Queensland Curtis LNG (0.23mmt, 20%), closely followed by Australia Pacific LNG (0.22mmt, 19%). Of those LNGCs currently en route, the Spirit of Helawill dock at Caofeidian LNG on Friday whilst the Prism Agility is arriving at Zhejiang LNG on Sunday. China’s expected imports are likely to decrease by 0.16mmt (-12%) week-on-week but increase by 0.29mmt (34%) compared to the week year-on-year. 

Meanwhile, expected deliveries to South Korea this weekare mainly coming from Qatar’s Ras Laffan (0.24mmt, 34%). As such the Umm Slal, the SK Stellar and the SK Sunrisewill dock at Incheon by Friday. The country’s imports are thus set to increase by 0.07mmt (11%) week-on-week but decrease by 0.13mmt (-15%) year-on-year.

Atlantic Basin

The Atlantic Basin is currently expected to receive 2.09mmt by the end of this week, constituting an increase of 2% week-on-week. Roughly 0.31mmt are still without a clear destination within the Basin, whilst 46% are destined for the United Kingdom (0.38mmt), Spain (0.36mmt) and France (0.22mmt).

The United Kingdom’s currently expected LNG deliveries within the week are also mainly coming from Qatar’s Ras Laffan (0.24mmt, 62%) aboard the Rasheeda and the Mekaines, bothcurrently headed for South Hook LNG to respectively arrive by Wednesday and Saturday. Meanwhile, the Velikiy Novgorod is expected at the Isle of Grain terminal carrying a Sabine Pass cargo on Tuesday. The UK is also anticipating 0.07mmt to arrive aboard the Lena River from Yamal LNG by Monday morning.

The country’s imports are thus set to spike by 0.31mmt (453%) week-on-week and by 0.30mmt (393%) on a year-on-year basis. 

Concurrently, market visibility indicates Spain’s imminent LNG deliveries consist of one cargo each from Qatar, Algeria, Russia, the United States and Trinidad & Tobago.  The largest contingent aboard the Torben Spirit (0.08mmt)en route from Qataris headed for the Bahia de Bizkaia LNG terminal by Thursday. Algeria is scheduled to be Spain’s second largest supplier this week, with 0.08mmt en route from Arzew to Barcelona via the Ougarta by Tuesday.

The country’s imports, therefore, are likely to decrease by 0.14mmt (-29%) week-on-week but increase significantly by 0.11mmt (43%) year-on-year.

The Atlantic’s third largest importer this week – France – is anticipating the bulk of its imminent LNG deliveries amounting to 0.15mmt to derive from Russia. The Vladimir Voronin and the Vladimir Vize are respectively scheduled to deliver 0.08mmt to the Montoir-de-Bretagne terminal by Thursday whilst the LNG Ondo will arrive at Fos-sur-Mer with 0.07mmt on Tuesday. 

Based on the current delivery horizon, France is likely to see its imports increase by 0.06mmt (37%) week-on-week and by marginal 0.004mmt (2%)  year-on-year.

Middle East

In the Middle East, Pakistan’s Port Qasim terminal is expecting the majority of the 0.25mmt due this week to derive from Qatar. Accordingly, the Q-Max Al Gattara (0.10mmt) will arrive at Port Qasim on Tuesday whilst the Q-Flex Al Sheehaniya (0.09mmt) is due on Saturday. Pakistan’s second supplier this week is going to be Nigeria LNG via a cargo aboard the Methane Nile Eagle (0.06mmt) due on Wednesday.

Pakistan’s LNG imports, therefore, are likely to increase by 0.12mmt (83%) week-on-week and by 0.19mmt (277%) year-on-year.

Concurrently, Israel’s FSRU off Hadera is expecting one delivery amounting to 0.07mmt aboard the British Sapphire sailing from Trinidad’s Atlantic LNG on Sunday morning. The vessel has just passed Madeira in approach to the Gibraltar Strait and thus seems to run on schedule. 

A delay notwithstanding, Israel is thus set to raise its LNG imports by 0.07mmt both week-on-week and year-on-year, as it has not imported LNG around this time before.